WARGAMING & DIORAMA - PART 1 "FIGHTING"

 I always had a dream: a wargaming without dice. I even found a very good name for it "sine alea"; I based my rules on the idea of a percentage of loss given by each unit to another unit, calculated on statistic reports of the epoch; so for istance I calculated that a infantry unit could give 9% of losses to enemy at 40 meters, and hence if the firing unit was of 100 men, the losses would have been 9 enemy's figures. 

The system is good, but it has the problem that you avoid the dice but you spend your evenings in calculating perecentage on your smartphone. Please not! True is that I went on with this system for years, even though the most amazing and fast battles in my memories were those done in childhood with the good ATALANTIC HO Scale Ancient Greeks against foes; (in my memory I remember a battle on my grandparents' table with a stubborn Greek square resisting till the last men!); Now I have much bigger armies, all painted but no fun. And sorry to say, to throw a die to check the results is soooo boring; better to play chess.

In my childhood I used a simply (and naif) system that was to throw a line from a soldier to the other to eliminate it. Surely it was random, without any sense and rule, but still very funny.

So the idea is now to match my first system "Sine Alea" with the "child" system and no dice; is it possible? yes it is!

The rules are good for XVIII till XIX Centuries, even though with adjustments to the numbers; what follows is the period Napoleonic till 1848.

So I calculated a minimal width of a unit, having 15 (shooting) men;  the firing unit was on 3 rows: 2 firing 1 recharging. So in 1 turn (1 minute) more or less they did 1 volley (in battle); so I calculated that 30 men firing (15 recharging) and a line that is as wide as the unit. 

The first metal line represents the width of the unit (on 15 men) while the second the width of the fire considered a little wider than the unit, considering that men at the edges shot also a little in diagonal.

Obvioulsy, if the rate is 2 shots/minute it will be enough to repeat the operation 2 times per turn.

In this article https://www.earmi.it/balistica/efficacia.htm there are a lot of statics about the failing shots and the precision. It is important to note that a soldier in battle under stress would have behaved in a total different way than in parade.

A shot failed 10% in a total way and 20% by some sort. It can be summarized as 18% of no-shots.

The rate firing was theoretically of 2 or or 3 shots per minute; but at the very end the rate was much less between 1 shot per minute or a little less (in the article they quote 5/8 minutes per 10 shot i.e. 1,5 shots every minute. This would go down to 1shot/minute during the fighting.

"Tests were carried out in 1811, the target was a wooden wall the size of an infantry line. The results of the practice were as follows: at a distance of 100 yards (91.44 m) 53% hits, 200 yards (182.88 m) 30% hits, 300 yards (274.32 m) 23% hits.

That was under ideal conditions, freshly issued flints and powder, there was no battle stress on the soldier and the target did not fire back .... we can probably reduce battle accuracy by 20% t all ranges, giving 100 yds 33%, 200yds 10% and 300yds 3%"

To this you have to add that the shots was on a target while the shape of a person was different. For this - accoridng to other calculation - it is possibile to divide by 50%.

It was also said that over 180 meters was impossible to be hit and at 90 meters you should be very unlucky to be hit.

At a Napoleonic Battle at 100 yards there was 5% hits. 

It is also very important to note (big mistake!) that is not true that 1 shot = 1 hit = 1 soldier; it was possible that a soldier in the first rank took 2 or 3 hits.

This allows to reduce again by 50% the numbers above. 

The precision of shooting was very relative: 

under 15 meters: 70%

15/50 m.  60%

50/100 m 50%

100/150 m 20%

150/180 m 5%

But here we don't consider the number of losses, but the accuracy of the firing. so we can increase a little the numbers above:

All this done on the idea of Scharnost:

under 15 meters: 80%

15/50 m.  70%

50/100 m 60%

100/150 m 15%

150/180 m 5%

This gives the following results on  a unit of 45 men, whose 30 are shooting:

out of 45 men,  of these 20% misfired. So 36 men shoot.

To the above numbers it is necessary to detract 15% due to double hit on the same target (soldier);

moreover I asked help on TMP about the accuracy of fighting of the 3rd rank; we agree they were really not that efficient; hence I decided that: 3rd rank represents 33% of the unit; more than half is by no means shooting with a minimal effect on target, so I reduced again the numbers by 18%

So:

SCHEME OF HIT ON THE TARGET (not losses!!)

(NB: the decreasing numbers is due to the fact that the unit undegoes losses by enemy)

  

 

Distance Meters	45 men	44 men	43 men	42 men	41 men	40 men
< 15	19,52	19,36	19,14	18,93	18,71	18,50
15/30	17,13	16,94	16,75	16,56	16,37	16,18
30/90	12,24	12,10	11,96	11,83	11,69	11,56
90/150	3,67	3,63	3,59	3,55	3,50	3,47
150/180	1,22	1,21	1,19	1,18	1,17	1,16

 

 

Distance Meters	39 men	38 men	37 men	36 men	35 men	34 men
< 15	18,27	18,06	17,84	17,62	17,41	17,19
15/30	15,99	15,80	15,61	15,42	15,23	15,04
30/90	11,42	11,28	11,15	11,02	10,88	10,74
90/150	3,42	3,38	3,34	3,30	3,26	3,16
150/180	1,15	1,14	1,13	1,12	1,11	1,07

The system to eliminate adversaries (papersoldiers obviously!) is done by a "firing front" object. This is:

Figure 1): "Firing Front"

Every match represent a shot, according to the numbers above. So for example if  39 men shoot, at 1st round, at a distance of 30/90 meters the "firing front" will have 15 (always round it down) shots. In the example (18 matches) it is enough to eliminate 3 matches (those with little lines), just to make it fast.

Now you have to put down the "distance line" and align it with the basis of the shooting unit:

Figure 2) "Distance line aligned with the basis of the (Piedmontese) shooting unit

The Piedmontese unit has 39 shooting papersoldiers - better soldiers - and 1 officer (not calculated); they stand at 40 meters (30 cm) from adversary.

Now, simply, the Piedmontese player scrolls thorugh the firing front over the distance line and impact on the enemy. Not all shots will hit the adversary, like in reality; see example below:

Figure 3) Second shooting 

In the example here above I put in evicence with 4 little red stars the Austrian troops touched/hit by the adversary. So in this case, the Austrian unit (a peloton) loses 4 men (dead/wounded).

It is usefull to remind that I consider that some shots could have gone beyond the 1st rank and touched the 2nd & 3rd ranks. It was not that easy, if the unit was in close order, but one must think about all. You calculated 10% of the losses, in this case 0,4; you add to this number the numbers over the comma 15,99 so 0,99 + 0,40 = 1,39 this means you can eliminate another soldiers. The total losse for this shooting is hence 5 men!.

As said, in battle (1848 but also Napoleonic period) it is possible to consider 40 second = 1 shots (at least at the very beginning of the shooting phase); 1 turn lasts 2 minutes, for a total of 3 shots; for every round of shots the player has to put the firing front on the 1st, 2nd and finally 3rd line of shooting as here:

Figure 4) The 3 lines of shooting

Moving the "firing front" on the 3 lines provides a sort of alea in the hits. (it would be possible to make 3 different firing fronts"

ADDENDUM 10.9.2025

A Piedmontese unit in 1848 has 45 men; of this there are 2 officers that do not shoot, so the total shooting soldiers are 43 on 3 ranks. By convention we consider the rank of the same numbers, so 

15 men in the 1st rank

14 men in the 2nd rank

14 men in the 3rd rank. 

Of the 3rd rank as said, we consider just 50% of it, i.e. 7 men. (i.e. 16,5% of the total men ready to shoot must be not considered)

So total number to consider for the first calculation: 43 - 7 = 35 men shooting

20% of these misfired. = 7 men misfired, so the number is 28 that hit the enemy.

Of this a further riduction by 10% (instead of 15%) for enemies hit 2 times, so 28 - 2,8 = 25,2 i.e. 25.

To make it short out of 43 men provided with rifles, just 25 were able to aim towards the target, i.e. (43:100 = 25:X)  it means 58% 

EXAMPLE: In this way if a unit has 64 firing elements (men with rifle) just 58% of them will be able to shoot to the enemy, this means that 37 shots were shot towards the final aim; 

Now it must be calculated the distance as above.

So 64 firing men, become 37 hitting shots that at  

under 15 meters: 80%

15/25 m.  70%

25/50 m. 60%

50/100 m 40%

100/150 m 10%

150/180 m 5%

55 meters became 60% of 37 = 22,2  shots impact the target

Example nr 2

(consider the numbers post comma to round up and down like euro) 

 64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 29 in target shots under 15 m 

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 24 in target shots at 15/25 m

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 22 in target shots at 25/50 m 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 14 in target shots at 50/100 m 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 3 in target shots at 100/150m 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m 

From these examples it will be easy to prepare a  board

What changes between historical periods is the rate of firing: if this above can be considered valid for 1848 wars, Napoleonic wars and Prussian in SYW, at the contrary it must be diminished going back in time (until WSS for what it is my concern).

In particular we can divide 3 periods.

1) pre WSS

2) WSS until SYW (except Prussian)

3) post WSS until 1848.

In our wargames we are interested in the periods nr 2 and 3.

Let's go back to our example above

Period 3 (1760 - 1848), shooting rate per minute; X 3 for 1 turn

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 29 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 87 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 24 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 72 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 22 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 66 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 14 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 42 in target shots 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 3 in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 9 in target shots 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn 3 in target shots 

BUT

Period 2 (1700 1760)

we have to decrease the rate of fire, from 1 shot/minute to 1 shot/1 minute and 45 seconds and 4th rank not considered so in a turn representing 3  minutes we would have 1,7 rounds of shooting in 1706 while in 1848 5 rounds of shooting

SO

Army in 1706 37 firing men (4th ranks is not considered)

transponded to 1 round of wargame:

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 29 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 49 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 24 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 40 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37firing men = 22 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 37,4 in target shots

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 14 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 23 in target shots 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 3 in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 5 n target shots 

64 men with gun = 37 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn  in target shots 

after 3 minutes of fighting (1 turn) the rate decreases by 25% (2nd turn or 3rd turn depending on the status of the unit) due to tiredness, stress etc. in a normal unit (less for elite, more for militia); in 4th and 5th turns (representing from minute 10 to minute 15) another 10% less;  after that you'll have the extra stress turns (number 6th, 7th 8th and 9th) that not all troops can sustain (so another 9 minutes of shooting making a total of 27 minutes, represented with a further -15%.

After this amount of time the unit would not be able to shoot a single shot due also to the confusion, the stress and the heat of the barrels of the rifles and they need to rest and test morale.

So it is possilble hence to shoot for 2 turns and then rest a little to recuperate.

Every single unit firing will have a mark (in the same colour of the ground) with a number written on it representing the number of turns firing without pause 

1706 UNIT

Let's simulate with a front of 13 men, x 3 ranks (4th is not considered), so 39 men with gun

(the choise of 39 men depends on the fact that is means 13 men in the front line, i.e. on a basis of 10 cm wide)

FIRST TURN

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 28 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 25 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 22 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 13 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 3 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn  in target shots 

SECOND & THIRD TURNS (-25%)

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 21 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 18 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 16 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 9 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 2 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 0 turn  in target shots

FOURTH & FIFTH TURNS (-furhter 10%)

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 18 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 16 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 14 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 8 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 1 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 0 turn  in target shots

SIXTH & SEVENTH & EIGHTS & NINETH TURNS (-furhter 15%)

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 15 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 13 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 11 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 6 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 0 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 0 turn  in target shots 

 

This is the first idea. In reality, if one thinks better, one thing is to fight at close range with huge increase of death rate, another is shooting from distance (from 100 meters up). and keeping the last at a costant 1

It is possible to correct in this way

FIRST TURN

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 28 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 25 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 22 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/75 m: in 1 turn 13 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 75/150m: in 1 turn 3 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn  in target shots 

SECOND & THIRD TURNS (-25% until 50 m)- from 5

0 untill 75 m - 10%; over fix

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 21 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 18 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 16 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/75 m: in 1 turn 11 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 75/150m: in 1 turn 2 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn  in target shots

FOURTH & FIFTH TURNS (-10% until 50 m)- from 50 untill 75 m - 5%; over fix

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 18 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 16 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 14 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/100 m: in 1 turn 8 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 100/150m: in 1 turn 2 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn 1 in target shots

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::...

SIXTH & SEVENTH & EIGHTS & NINETH TURNS (-furhter 15%)

39 men with gun = 22 firing men= 17 in target shots under 15 m: in 1 turn 15 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 15 in target shots at 15/25 m: in 1 turn 13 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22firing men = 13 in target shots at 25/50 m: in 1 turn 11 in target shots

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 8 in target shots at 50/75 m: in 1 turn 6 in target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men =  in target shots at 75/150m: in 1 turn 2 n target shots 

39 men with gun = 22 firing men = 1 in target shots at 150/180 m: in 1 turn 1 in target shots